Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is barreling toward Jamaica after rapidly intensifying with unprecedented speed over the weekend. Forecasters warn this storm could dump up to 40 inches (1,000 millimeters) of rain on the island nation, triggering catastrophic flash floods and numerous landslides.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Melissa to make direct landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday morning. The predicted path of this slow-moving storm shows a northeastward curve as it crawls over the island, making landfall again in Cuba around 2 a.m. ET Wednesday. By 2 p.m. that day, Melissa should reach the Lucayan Archipelago—a chain of islands that includes the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos—making its third landfall in three days.
As of 8 a.m. ET Monday, the Category 5 hurricane had maximum sustained wind speeds of 160 miles per hour (260 kilometers per hour) and was heading west at just 3 mph (4.8 km/hr), according to the NHC. The storm’s outer bands have begun dumping heavy rain on Jamaica, flooding some streets.
Melissa has already brought heavy rain, flooding, and landslides to Hispaniola, killing at least four people in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic, local reports state.
Once the storm exits the Caribbean, it should continue along its northeastward curve and track up the East Coast of the U.S. This path keeps Melissa offshore—forecasters do not expect the hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.
Hurricane Melissa’s extraordinary rapid intensification
Melissa was still a tropical storm early Saturday but encountered exceptionally warm waters and low wind shear in the central Caribbean Sea. This caused the storm to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 4 hurricane strength by early Sunday.
“Melissa is strengthening at TWICE the rate needed for ‘rapid intensification,’” meteorologist Matthew Cappucci wrote in an X post on Saturday. “It went from a 70 mph tropical storm to Category 3 major hurricane in [just] 12 HOURS!”
The storm reached Category 5 strength early Monday morning. Its booming strength and slow movement make for a deadly combination, drawing out the devastating impact the storm has on populated areas. As climate change increases sea surface temperatures, bouts of ultra-rapid intensification are becoming more common.
What’s in store for landfalling island nations
Experts believe Melissa will be the most powerful landfalling storm on record for Jamaica, surpassing Category 4 Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. The government ordered mandatory evacuations for several vulnerable communities on Sunday.
“I want to urge Jamaicans to take this seriously,” said Desmond McKenzie, deputy chairman of Jamaica’s Disaster Risk Management Council, according to the Associated Press. “Do not gamble with Melissa. It’s not a safe bet.”
The NHC stated Monday morning that destructive winds, storm surge, and catastrophic flooding will worsen on Jamaica throughout the day and into the evening. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along the south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday, reaching peak heights of up to 13 feet (4 meters) above ground level.
Melissa will still be a powerful and destructive hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba Wednesday morning, according to the NHC. Forecasters expect tropical storm conditions to begin affecting the eastern side of the island on Tuesday, with hurricane conditions arriving by Tuesday evening.
Up to 20 inches (508 mm) of rain are expected to fall in eastern Cuba today through Wednesday, triggering life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding as well as numerous landslides.
The storm will reach the southeast Bahamas as a slightly weaker hurricane Wednesday afternoon. Still, forecasters expect Melissa to dump 4 to 8 in (100 to 200 mm) of rain from Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in areas of flash flooding.
The clock is ticking for these island nations to prepare for Melissa’s arrival. The NHC states that preparations to protect life and property should already be complete in Jamaica and must be rushed to completion in Cuba. All eyes will be on the Caribbean as this exceptionally dangerous storm unfolds over the next few days.
