- High-capacity DDR5 DRAM prices surged sharply from late 2025 to early 2026
- TrendForce forecasts predict continued price growth despite apparent stabilization in retail
- Server-focused modules have absorbed most wafer output, tightening PC supply
A recent pricing trend from PCPartPicker suggests memory prices may be settling after months of volatility, particularly for higher-capacity kits.
That apparent calm contrasts sharply with seperate TrendForce forecasts which indicate contract prices for PC DRAM could rise substantially in early 2026.
These conflicting signals reflect a market in which short-term retail averages and longer-term supply agreements are moving along different trajectories.
Supply adjustments reshape availability
The gap between observed prices and forward-looking contracts has widened, creating uncertainty rather than reassurance for buyers tracking DDR5 DRAM costs.
Memory suppliers have made clear adjustments to how it allocates production capacity across product categories.
Server-focused modules have increasingly absorbed available wafer output, leaving laptops and related products exposed to tighter supply conditions.
Suppliers have paired this shift with selective allocation practices that favor large original equipment manufacturers while reducing volumes available to independent module makers.
This supply discipline has created room for upward contract revisions as suppliers narrow historical price gaps between PC and server memory.
TrendForce data tracking average selling prices per gigabit shows limited movement throughout most of 2025.
From the first quarter through the third quarter of the year, both PC and server memory lines remain largely flat, indicating controlled supply and steady demand.
That pattern changes abruptly during the final quarter of the year, when prices for both segments begin rising almost simultaneously.
Server-class DDR5 RDIMM prices increase more sharply, while PC-focused SODIMM prices follow a gentler upward slope, confirming that the shift was market-wide rather than isolated.
The largest movement appears between late 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, when contract prices rise rapidly.
TrendForce projections show continued increases through the remainder of 2026, although at a slower pace after the initial jump.
Importantly, the forecast does not show any reversal or correction once prices reach higher levels.
Instead, both PC and server DRAM appear to settle into a sustained higher range, with server memory maintaining a consistent premium per gigabit.
Demand from large-scale AI deployments sits at the center of this volatile pricing situation.
Data center operators continue to expand memory-dense systems to support training and inference workloads, increasing consumption of high-capacity DDR5 modules.
This sustained pull from AI infrastructure has reinforced supplier preference for server and data center memory, indirectly tightening availability for PC-focused products.
Many observers have described the recent slowdown in price increases as stabilization, although the underlying data does not indicate improved affordability.
Prices appear to level off only after reaching levels that limit purchasing activity.
This pattern suggests that stability may reflect resistance from buyers rather than healthier supply conditions.
If demand remains constrained while suppliers maintain current allocation strategies, elevated pricing could persist longer than many market participants expect.
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