Earlier this month, bitcoin was on top of the world, hitting yet another new all-time high of roughly $125,000. Around the same time, applications for a large number of increasingly speculative crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which some saw as signs of an overheated market.

A couple of weeks later, the bitcoin price now sits near the $105,000 mark, which is a 16% drop from the recent high.

Although bitcoin is often characterized as a sort of digital gold that can operate as a hedge against inflation and general economic turmoil around the world, the reality is that it is currently being outperformed by actual, physical gold amid the escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and China and other fears.

This points to the reality that, despite the massive price appreciation bitcoin has enjoyed over the past 16 years, it is still in many ways early days for the crypto market. In fact, bitcoin is currently more closely correlated to the traditional stock market than gold, according to data from The Block.

There may also be an increased separation occurring between bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market, as last week’s crash related to liquidations on leveraged positions in various crypto assets led to a continuation of the trend reversal regarding the decline of Real Bitcoin Dominance, as measured by bitcoin data portal Bitbo, that began in September.

The Trump administration has ushered in a new era for the crypto market, with a number of executive orders related to the industry signed earlier this year and the passage of the GENIUS Act, which specifically creates guidelines for stablecoins. As part of the Trump administration’s embrace of crypto, the SEC has been more welcoming to publicly traded ETFs that are intended to track various crypto assets.

While spot-based ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum were approved under the Biden regime, approvals for similar financial products for the likes of the meme coin Dogecoin and other smaller crypto assets have already been made. And this is likely to continue throughout the rest of the year, as previously predicted by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart in comments shared with Investopedia over the summer.

We’re already at 2x AltAlt Season Crypto ETFs and its not even October. Do you realize how crazy things are gonna get? https://t.co/VWMf8tT8S8

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 18, 2025

As an example of how the inherently speculative nature of crypto assets may be bleeding too much into traditional markets, a filing was made last month for a product that would track small-cap crypto assets with 2x leverage. The product uses “Alt Season” in its name, which is a nod to the particularly frothy part of the crypto market cycle when less established crypto assets start to outperform bitcoin itself.

While the crypto industry is still seeking greater clarity in terms of the regulatory definitions of various types of crypto assets (i.e. when an asset is a regulated security versus a commodity), Senate Democrats and Republicans are still some way off in terms of finding consensus on those new crypto rules.

Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hougan says #Bitcoin‘s 4 year cycle is dead. pic.twitter.com/mL4PDCCMLQ

— TFTC (@TFTC21) May 1, 2025

The SEC has already made some alterations in terms of how the crypto industry will be regulated under the new administration, and both the major companies involved with crypto and many members of Congress would like the rules of the road further clarified via legislation.

Plenty of analysts are sharing their opinions, but the reality of where the crypto market as a whole goes over the next few months is anyone’s guess. Previous crypto market cycles have tended to revolve around the Bitcoin network’s roughly four-year halving cycle related to its issuance policy; however, many industry analysts now believe this time is different due to structural changes in the supply and demand dynamics of the market.

If this time is not different, then bitcoin could be preparing to enter a bear market in the coming months. In fact, it’s possible the top of this most recent bull run has already been reached.